Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Faces Crucial Resistance At The 20-day SMA

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Forecast

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
4 Min Read
  • The Bitcoin price had bounced up from $31,500 support.
  • Touching the 50-day SMA will flip the parabolic SAR from negative to positive.
  • Mexican billionaire looks to make Bitcoin bank.
  • The Bitcoin price crashed by $9,000 as it dropped from $40,500 to $31,500 between June 15 and June 22. During this crash, BTC has reversed both the 20-day SMA and the parabolic SAR from bullish to bearish. Following this drop, BTC has been trending horizontally.

    Bitcoin Price Stuck Between 20-day SMA and $31,500 Support

    Since June 22, the Bitcoin price has been trending horizontally between the $31,500 support and the 20-day SMA. Regardless, the MACD has reversed from bearish to bullish, so a further rise in price is expected. If BTC breaks above the 20-day SMA and this horizontal trend, it should reverse market sentiment to positive.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    BTC/USD daily chart 062921

    Bitcoin price faces immediate resistance at $37,000. As per the IOMAP, over a million addresses had previously purchased almost 450,000 BTC at this level.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    BTC/USD volume chart 062921

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis – CryptoQuant

    BTC/USD cryptoquant chart 062921

    "Daily average $BTC funding rates on futures exchanges turned positive. Futures exchanges Include Binance, Bybit, BitMEX, Deribit, Huobi Global, Okex. Funding rates represent traders' sentiments of which position they bet on in the perpetual swaps market. Positive funding rates imply that many traders are bullish and long traders pay funding to short traders."

    BTC/USD cryptoquant chart 2 062921

    “$BTC Block Interval reaches an 11-year high. The average block confirmation time was over 23min yesterday.”

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis – Glassnode

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 062921

    “Last week, the largest dollar value capitulation in #Bitcoin history occurred, with over $3.45B in net losses realised on-chain. Losses are realised when coins purchased higher, are spent at lower prices.”

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 2 062921

    “The mining market has experienced an approximately 65.5% decline in revenues since levels sustained in March and April. The 7-day average mining revenue currently sits at around $20.73M/day, which in context, is still 154% higher than it was at the time of the back-to-back halvings in 2020.”

    Only 28% of Bitcoin held left crypto exchanges in a year

    Despite Bitcoin experiencing a notable price correction, data shows that fewer investors are selling the asset from exchanges. As of June 26, 2020, data indicates that 2.79 million in Bitcoin was held on various exchange reserves. However, a year later, only 28.67% of the asset left exchanges, with the figure standing at 1.99 million.

    Bitcoin has plunged by almost 49.46% from the April all-time high of $64,800. Therefore, it was expected that most investors would be selling their Bitcoin holding. The data further indicates that from April, Bitcoin on crypto exchanges rose, with April 20 holding the lowest value at 1.8 million Bitcoin. However, there has been an increase of 9.34% from the low compared to the June 26 figure. 

    One of the common assumptions from the crypto community is that, with reduced selling pressure, most investors opt to store Bitcoin noncustodial private wallets. This potentially shows that most traders now prefer to hold in anticipation of a future price rally. 

    This belief is due to the possibility of Bitcoin surging in the future, having established a base of around $30,000. Bitcoin faced some negative news but has shown signs of resilience. Analysts have presumed that a low selling pressure stems from Bitcoin users storing funds in noncustodial private wallets.

    Bitcoin’s slump stems from increased regulatory scrutiny, especially from China, and concerns over its carbon footprint. Some analysts, however, believe that crypto has a bright future. Unlike previous Bitcoin sell-offs amid price volatility, the level of institutional activity was almost non-existent. 

    However, this year, the crypto has recorded an influx of capital, with co-head of cryptocurrency investment firm Galaxy Digital Trading Jason Urban projecting that the activity will start manifesting later this year. He projects that the asset will trade at $70,000. 

    Mexican billionaire wants to make a Bitcoin bank

    Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego recently said that Banco Azteca, the bank which he founded in October 2002, plans to accept Bitcoin. Ricardo Benjamín Salinas Pliego is the founder and chairman of Mexican conglomerate Grupo Salinas. He is currently the third richest person in Mexico.

    Ricardo earlier revealed that 10% of his liquid assets are invested in Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin initially grabbed Salinas’s attention as a “payment vehicle,” he later realized that “it’s the store value that really makes it valuable.” Salinas said that he sold all of his BTC holdings in January 2017 (when BTC was trading around $17,000). 

    “I had a big party, [was] very happy with my best investment ever, but you know, we always return to the scene of the crime, right? So when it went down to $10,000, I thought ‘well, now, it’s more reasonable, and I bought some at that time. and then it went down more to $6,000, bought about some more, and that’s where I am, where our average right now is around $9,000, and I’m not done. I’m not selling it. I think I’m gonna sit around for another five or ten years.”

    Responding to a tweet by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, Salinas revealed that his bank intends to become the first bank in Mexico to accept Bitcoin. According to Grupo Salinas, Banco Azteca is a bank that operates in Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and El Salvador.

    Its parent company is Grupo Elektra, which is a subsidiary of Grupo Salinas. It is “one of the largest banks in Mexico, with more than 16 million savings accounts and more than 18 million credit accounts.”

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    On the upside, the Bitcoin price needs to take down the $37,000 resistance barrier to touch the 50-day SMA ($38,000) and flip the parabolic SAR from negative to positive.

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