Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Faces Major Resistance At $38,000

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Forecast

3 Min Read
Last Updated July 23rd 2021
  • Bitcoin price has healthy support at $37,000.
  • MACD shows increasing bullish market momentum.
  • The bulls have been in control of the Bitcoin price for three out of the last four sessions. During this time period, BTC has climbed from $34,700 to $37,730. Over the last nine days, BTC has been trending in a narrow channel between $34,700 and $39,350.

    Bitcoin Price Flashes Positive Signals

    Looking at the Bitcoin price daily chart, we can see that BTC has flashed to major buy signals. Firstly, the MACD shows increasing bullish market momentum. Secondly, the parabolic SAR has flipped from bearish to bullish.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    Bitcoin BTC Daily Chart

    Looking at the IOMAP, the Bitcoin price faces strong resistance at $38,000. Previously, at this level, around 690,000 addresses had purchased almost 470,000 BTC tokens.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    Bitcoin BTC Volume Chart

    Long-term Bitcoin Holders Are Dormant

    Bitcoin BTC Long and Short Term Holders

    Glassnode tweeted:

    “Our threshold for #Bitcoin Long-Term Holders are coins dormant for > 5-months. At current prices, LTHs who accumulated in late-Dec to early-Jan are approaching their cost basis. This will test the conviction of the market”

    Bitcoin Inflows Increasing

    Bitcoin BTC Inflows

    As per CryptoQuant, the number of Bitcoins in the exchanges is increasing, which complements the inflow spikes.

    Bitcoin Price Unrealized Profit Going Down

    Bitcoin BTC Price Unrealized Profit

    Glassnode tweeted:

    "#Bitcoin $BTC Relative Unrealized Profit (7d MA) just reached a 6-month low of 0.560."

    Bitcoin’s Daily Active Addresses Plummeting

    The crypto community seems to be divided about the price analysis and prediction of Bitcoin as several technical indicators contradict each other. However, the Daily Active Addresses (DAA) index has historically been helpful in these situations. An earlier Bitcoinist report had said that Bitcoin’s Daily Active Addresses correlates strongly with the asset’s price action. 

    A recent Bitcoinist report clarified that Daily Active Addresses refers to “wallets that send or receive Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis” and not the non-zero BTC addresses, which, as reported, reached an all-time high two months ago. However: 

    Historical data indicates that the number of non-zero addresses was no longer a dependent variable of BTC’s price action since late 2017 and early 2018. As such, we can conclude that an increase in total addresses will not directly equate to Bitcoin rallying. Still, a strong growth in the number of wallets suggests that Bitcoin has much more room to grow. 

    According to Arcane Research, Bitcoinist noted, historically, larger drops in on-chain activity corresponded well with market tops. However: 

    We have seen several drops in on-chain activity followed by sharp recoveries in both price and activity historically, so this is not necessarily a guaranteed top signal. Time will tell. 

    Nevertheless, both the chart and the Daily Active Addresses statistics paint a blur picture. Luckily, several indicators point in the other direction. Notably, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain steel-solid and that governments around the world continue to print fiat monet. So, the case in favor of Bitcoin still stands, regardless of the price. The graphs might be pointing down, but the value of the Bitcoin network remains the same.

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    The Bitcoin price needs to break down the $38,000 resistance barrier first and foremost. If they do so, BTC should overcome 20-day and 50-day SMAs with ease and touch the $43,000 resistance barrier.

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