Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Fall After Encountering Resistance At The 20-day SMA

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Forecast

4 Min Read
Last Updated July 23rd 2021
  • The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $36,000 psychological level.
  • MACD shows sustained bullish market momentum.
  • May 22, the Bitcoin price has been trending in a $4,200 channel between the $34,800 and $39,000 levels. On June 3, BTC flipped the 20-day SMA from resistance to support, before it crashed down. Let’s take a closer look with technical analysis.

    Bitcoin Price Faces Continuous Resistance At 20-day SMA.

    Over the last four days, the Bitcoin price failed at the 20-day SMA and crashed from $39,000 to $34,130 – losing almost $5,000 in its overall valuation. Despite this drop, the MACD and the parabolic SAR tells us that the current market sentiment for BTC is still bullish. The bears have to take down the $32,000 support to reverse the parabolic SAR from positive to negative.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    Bitcoin BTC Daily Chart

    Looking at the IOMAP, the Bitcoin price has crucial support at $32,000. Previously, at this level, around 196,000 addresses had purchased almost 175,000 BTC tokens.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    Bitcoin BTC Volume Chart

    Bitcoin To Open Buy Windows?

    Bitcoin BTC Contract Funding Rates

    Santiment tweeted:

    “#Bitcoin tumbled down to $33.8k as #crypto assets have universally dropped. Our members are keeping a close eye on the growing amount of short positions. When sentiment grows bearish like this, it generally indicates buy windows to go against the crowd.”

    Lack Of Resistance Between $40.000 and $46,000

    Bitcoin BTC Volume Profile

    Whalemap noted:

    "The large gap in whale accumulation between 40 and 46k means that there is not much resistance between those levels.  Getting above 40k will get us to 46k pretty quickly."

    Bitcoin Price Strays Further From Stock-To-Flow

    Bitcoin BTC Stock-to-Flow Deflection

    It seems like Bitcoin is straying further from PlanB’s stock-to-flow model. The model products Bitcoin price to reach $100K to $288K in 2021.

    Number Of Active Entities

    Bitcoin BTC Number of Active Entities

    Glassnode observed:

    “The number of active entities has similarly pulled back, retracing from a high of 375k to around 250k unique on-chain entities. This is again coincident with values observed in late-2017 to early 2018 as interest in the asset wanes with falling prices.”

    Bitcoin Transfer Volume Reaches New ATH

    Bitcoin BTC Transfer Volume

    "The total USD denominated transfer volume settled by the Bitcoin network has pulled back by a whopping 65% in the last two weeks. Change-adjusted transfer volume fell from over $43B/day down to $15B/day. Again, the 2017 aftershock is the only event of comparable scale where on-chain settled volume fell by 80% over a period of around 3 months."

    Bitcoin Active Addresses Going Down

    Bitcoin BTC Active Addresses

    CryptoQuant observed:

    “$BTC active addresses reached 716K, Yearly Low

    - Active receiver addresses 467.7K, Yearly Low 

    - Active sender addresses 450.4K

    47.4% of $BTC addresses are stagnant compared to April 2021, Yearly High.”

    Bitcoin Total Fees Going Down

    Bitcoin BTC Total Fees

    "#Bitcoin $BTC Total Fees Paid (7d MA) just reached a 11-month low of 1.658 BTC."

    1+ Years Bitcoin Supply Crashes Down

    Bitcoin BTC 1+ Year Supply

    "#Bitcoin $BTC Percent Supply Last Active 1+ Years just reached a 18-month low of 54.144% Previous 18-month low of 54.145% was observed on 07 June 2021."

    Michaël van de Poppe Details Two Scenarios For Bitcoin Price

    Michaël van de Poppe, a famous crypto trader, lists out two scenarios for Bitcoin price.

    Bitcoin BTC Projection

    “Scenario 1 on #Bitcoin 

    The market holds $34K as support and reverses and then breakout above $40K, which makes a short squeeze possible to $46-49K.”

    Bitcoin BTC Projection

    “Scenario 2 on #Bitcoin.

    We break below $34K and then we're going to tap into support for a bullish divergence and to tap the liquidity before reversing the markets.

    Many #altcoins show the same opportunity then.”

    Monochrome – Australian Bitcoin capital growth fund – gains public interest

    Australia’s first capital growth fund, Monochrome, is set to offer Bitcoin exposure to wholesale investors. It has received inquiries from several wealth groups, according to the fund’s founder.

    While retail crypto investment is quite straightforward, institutional crypto investment is relatively more complicated. Brisbane-based Monochrome Asset Management permits regulated investment in the form of a unit trust that can be easily added to portfolios in the same way as stocks or real estate. The minimum investment is AU$50,000.

    According to Stockhead, Monochrome CEO Jeff Yew believes that the lack of regulated instruments is why institutional adoption in Australia is lagging behind international markets. Yew added that he hopes Monochrome will help lead Australia toward further crypto adoption, including introducing the first Bitcoin ETF in Australia.

    To modernize Australia’s financial sector, the government is currently accepting submissions to a Senate inquiry concerning how to best regulate cryptocurrencies.

    Brisbane is the third-largest city in Australia and is considered the digital asset hub of the country. Binance Australia, Swyftx, and Digital Surge cryptocurrency exchanges are all headquartered in Brisbane.

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    The buyers need to overcome the 20-day SMA to take down the $39,000 resistance barrier and push Bitcoin price towards $40,000 again.

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