Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Drops After Failing At $39,400

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
5 Min Read

Daily Bitcoin BTC Technical Analysis
  • Bitcoin price is currently sitting on top of healthy support levels.
  • The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 2 years has reached a 1-month low.

The Bitcoin price has dropped from $39,400 to $38,225, losing a little over $1,000 in its overall valuation. This Saturday, BTC flirted with the $40,000 psychological level before retracing. Let’s take a closer look with technical analysis.


Bitcoin Price Sitting On Top Of Healthy Support

Prior to the last two day’s bearish action, Bitcoin price was in the middle of a bullish surge, wherein it jumped from $30,300 to $39,400, that’s a near $9,000 rise in overall valuation. The relative strength index (RSI) has dipped from 64 to 61 following the recent negative price action.

Image: BTC/USD daily

Looking at IntoTheBlock’s IOMAP, the Bitcoin price is sitting on top of a bunch of healthy support barriers. The nearest support line is at $37,600. Previously, 805,000 addresses had purchased a little over 470,000 BTC here.

Image: IntoTheBlock

The 4-hour Bitcoin price chart has flashed three negative signals:

  1. The MACD shows sustained bearish market momentum.
  2. The 20-bar SMA has reversed from support to resistance.
  3. The parabolic SAR has flipped from bullish to bearish.

Image: BTC/USD 4-hour


Bitcoins Are On The Move

As per Glassnode, the percentage of Bitcoin circulating supply that has not moved in at least 2 years has reached a 1-month low of 46.168%. Previous 1-month low of 46.200% was observed on 07 February 2021. As of now it’s unclear as to whether this is a positive or a negative sign. We have to wait and watch.


Mike Novogratz: Bullish Bitcoin Rally Will Extend Into 2022

In a recent interview on the Alpha Trader podcast, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, shared his thoughts on Bitcoin’s bull market. Novogratz said that the bull market is far from over as BTC is poised to go higher in the next 22 months. He expects big banks to start offering crypto services soon. 

What I’m really convinced of is we’re still really early on the adoption cycle for big institutions. You haven’t seen the big banks come out with their offerings yet. Let me tell you with certainty, they are coming. I will be really surprised if Bitcoin is not higher this year and higher the year after.

As Bitcoin continues on its extended run, the Galaxy Digital CEO highlighted key factors driving the growth of the flagship crypto asset. 

Covid changed everything with the macro backdrop of hard assets, and Bitcoin is so well developed, created to be a hard asset that the adoption curve accelerated. Paul Tudor Jones looked at it and said, “Wow, this really does work as a hard asset…”

It’s the single largest distributed asset ever outside of the dollar, and so you’ve got this community-building that’s going on telling the story of why it’s important

Novogratz also revealed the current makeup of Galaxy Digital’s crypto portfolio. At the moment, the portfolio is made up of 70% Bitcoin, 25% Ether and 5% DeFi (decentralized finance).

Right now, we’re probably 70% Bitcoin, 25% Ethereum (ETH) and 5% DeFi (decentralized finance). That feels to me about the right risk-adjusted and volatility-adjusted portfolio.


Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd: Bitcoin Rally Unsustainable But Could Go To $600,000

Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer (CIO) of Guggenheim, has said that Bitcoin has the potential to reach $600,000 in price eventually. In a recent interview on CNN, Minerd noted that the company’s decade-long research on Bitcoin shows that the digital asset can potentially reach that price level. 

According to his calculations, if Bitcoin’s supply equals gold, then the price would be between $400,000 and $600,000. 

If you consider the supply of Bitcoin relative … to the supply of gold in the world, and what the total value of gold is, if Bitcoin were to go to those kinds of numbers, you’d be talking about $400,000 to $600,000 per Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been in a price rally since November 2020. It reached its peak in January when the price surged to a new all-time high of over $41,000. However, it fell to $30,000 level, leaving the crypto community wondering if it was a new bear market or just a retracement to $20,0000. 

Minerd said that retracement is because institutional participation is not yet strong enough to support such a rapid rally. However, he is confident that the institutional participation will expand and increase Bitcoin’s potential to sustain its growth as it becomes a more relevant asset in the global economy. 

Cryptocurrency has come into the realm of respectability and will continue to become more and more important in the global economy.

The $600,000 price target for Bitcoin is an upward revision from the $400,000 that Minerd had previously given as the price target. Following BTC’s retracement, JP Morgan analysts said Grayscale, the world’s largest digital asset management platform, will play a key role in returning the price above the $40,000 level from which it fell. 


Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

Bitcoin price will likely drop to the $37,600 support as the bears take charge of the price action. Following that, BTC may rise if this is a temporary correction.

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