Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Fall After Encountering Resistance At The 20-day SMA

Daily Bitcoin BTC Technical Analysis

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
3 Min Read
  • The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $36,000 psychological level.
  • MACD shows sustained bullish market momentum.
  • El Salvador looks to greenlight Bitcoin as legal tender.
  • Between May 30 and June 3, the Bitcoin price jumped up from the $35,000 support wall and reached the $39,500 resistance barrier. However, having failed to overcome this line, BTC has crashed to $36,000 – losing almost $3,500 over the last three days.

    Bitcoin Price Flashes Buy Signals

    Despite the recent downturn during which BTC reversed the 20-day SMA from support to resistance, Looking at the daily chart, we can see that BTC has flashed two buy signals – Firstly, the MACD shows sustained bullish market momentum. Secondly, the parabolic SAR has reversed from negative to positive.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    BTC/USD daily chart 060721

    Looking at the IOMAP, the Bitcoin price has crucial support at $35,000. Previously, at this level, around 420,000 addresses had purchased almost 170,000 BTC tokens.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    BTC/USD volume chart 060721

    Bitcoin Whales Behaviour

    BTC Whales Behaviour

    Before the weekend started, Santiment noticed the following:

    "#Bitcoin continues to range in the $37k to $39k range, but whales are accumulating behind the scenes. Addresses with 100 to 10k $BTC have added 50,000 total $BTC to their wallets, or ~$1.95bn. Read our quick take on what this means!"

    During the weekend, Santiment shared this chart and insight

    BTC Whales Behaviour

    "#Bitcoin whale addresses holding 1k+ $BTC are back to holding 7.88M tokens. This is the largest amount of $BTC held by whales since Mar 14. This coincides with just 2.65M $BTC held by addresses with 10 or less $BTC, their SMALLEST amount in 6 months."

    Bitcoin Moving From Liquid To Illiquid

    BTC Liquid and Highly Liquid Supply

    Glassnode observed:

    "From March 2020 to the start of May, a total of 744k $BTC moved from Liquid to Illiquid state. During the recent sell-off, 160k $BTC have been spent back into liquid circulation providing an indication of the supply that has changed hands."

    Bitcoin Continues to Move From Impatient To Patient Hands

    Glassnode co-founder shared the following to show how the primary cryptocurrency has consistently moved on from the short-term holders to long-term holders.

    BTC Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holders

    El Salvador And Bitcoin

    El Salvador President Nayib Bukele recently announced that he would send proposed legislation to the country's congress that would make Bitcoin legal tender in the Central American nation. He took to Twitter to share the news. 

    Next week I will send to Congress a bill that will make Bitcoin a legal tender in El Salvador. In the short term this will generate jobs and help provide financial inclusion to thousands outside the formal economy and in the medium and long term we hope that this small decision can help us push humanity at least a tiny bit into the right direction.

    Bukele's New Ideas party holds a supermajority in the new congress seated May 1, giving any legislative proposal from the president a solid likelihood of passage.

    Additional details of the plan are unclear. But in subsequent messages, Bukele noted that Bitcoin could be "the fastest growing way to transfer 6 billion dollars a year in remittances." He said that a large part of money transfers are currently lost to intermediaries, and with Bitcoin, more than a million low-income families could benefit.

    He also said that 70% of El Salvador's population does not have a bank account and works in the informal economy. Bitcoin could improve financial inclusion, he added. Bukele's concentration of power, attacks on critics, and open disdain for checks on his power have raised concerns about his path. However, Bukele has a wide base of support in part due to the utter failure of the country's traditional parties who ruled during the past 30 years to improve people's lives and to his ability to provide short-term benefits.

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    The buyers need to overcome two crucial resistance barriers – $36,500 and 20-day SMA. If they manage to do so, the Bitcoin price will garner positive momentum.

Top Brokers in
    All Regulated Brokers
    67% of retail clients lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.