Bitcoin Technical Analysis: $58,500 Resistance Barrier Prevents BTC From Going Up

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
3 Min Read

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Analysis
  • Bitcoin price is hovering between $58,500 and $56,000 levels.
  • On-chain analytics are bullish for BTC.

Over the last four days, the Bitcoin price is stuck between the $58,500 and $56,000 levels. While technical analysis doesn’t look that inspiring, the on-chain analytics looks pretty bullish.

Bitcoin Price Stuck Between Key Levels

Between March 10 and March 13, the Bitcoin price jumped from $55,000 to $61,000 and gained almost $6,000. However, BTC has since dropped down and gaining the $56,000 support line has been critical for overall price health. Do note that the MACD shows that the market momentum is about to reverse from bullish to bearish.

btc/usd daily chart 031921

Image: BTC/USD daily

The $58,500 resistance is the key barrier that’s preventing Bitcoin price from reaching $60,000. Previously, at this level, 486,000 addresses had purchased 171,500 BTC tokens.

btc/usd volume chart 031921

Image: IntoTheBlock

Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analytics

Glassnode’s Long-term MVRV takes into account only UTXOs with a lifespan of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of long term investors.

Glassnode Chart

Glassnode noted:

“Long-Term Holder MVRV at 20+ has been a good indicator of #Bitcoin market tops in previous cycles. Currently at 10, it indicates room for more upwards movement. $BTC was trading at ~$4,500 at these levels in 2017 – and made another 4.4x to the peak.”

The next chart is the “Long-Term Holder Net Position Change.” it shows the monthly net position change of long term holders, i.e. the 30 day change in supply held by long term holders.

Glassnode Chart

“Jan & Yann,” the co-founders of Glassnode, noted: 

“The impact of Long Term #Bitcoin Holders taking profits is less evident now than during January's peak.”

$80K Bitcoin Options Signals More Upside

Bitcoin's ongoing price rally and the increasing institutional adoption suggest that traders betting on the June $80,000 Bitcoin call option would be well rewarded. Speculating on an $80,000 Bitcoin call options for June does not seem unreasonable due to BTC's bullish performance in the recent past. 

This was not the case a couple of months back when BTC peaked at $42,000 on January 8 and soon dropped to the $30,000 level. At that time, a 150% surge from the $32,000 price (on January 26) was required, which seemed quite far-fetched. Hence, the June $80,000 BTC call (buy) options traded at Deribit for $2,240, or 0.07 BTC. 

Deribit Chart

BTC $80,000 June call option, in BTC. Source: Deribit

Less than two months later, as BTC reached $61,700 on March 13, the same call option peaked at BTC 0.15 ($9,255) - a 3x gain in less than seven weeks. Still, an additional 30% upside was needed to reach the $80,000 strike.

Despite the recent BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 39%. The call option price has also surged due to the BTC volatility change as sellers demand an increased premium for taking the risk during uncertain markets.

Bitcoin volatility spiked from 4% in January to the current 5%. This event is bullish for call option buyers. Even if the BTC price had remained the same, the option price would have climbed accordingly. Options pricing is also heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. The same $80,000 call might be deemed worthless two days ahead of maturity. 

Currently, the $80,000 June call option might seem far-fetched because of its 39% delta and the fact that BTC gained 43% in the last 100 days.

However, traders often consider buying “impossible” call options with longer expiry dates. Traders who bet on the 150% BTC price increase to $32,000 in January are probably very happy with the results.

Bitcoin Price is Expected To Reach These Levels

Bitcoin price will probably keep hovering between the $58,500 and $56,000 levels.

Top Brokers in
    All Regulated Brokers
    67% of retail clients lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.