Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Crashes Towards The $31,000 Support Wall

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Analysis

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
4 Min Read
  • The Bitcoin price has had six bearish sessions out of the last seven.
  • The MACD is on the verge of reversing from bullish to bearish.
  • The Bitcoin price crashed from June 15 to June 20, wherein it fell from $40,500 to $35,700., During this period, bears took control of BTC for five consecutive days. Prior to that, BTC had crashed from $39,250 to $33,250 between June 4 and June 8 and flipped the 20-day SMA from support to resistance. 

    Bitcoin Price Plummets Below $35,000

    This Monday, the Bitcoin price has crashed from $35,500 to $32,625, breaking below the $35,000 psychological level. As things stand, the relative strength index shows that BTC could touch the $31,000 support wall before it gets oversold. The MACD is also on the verge of reversing from bullish to bearish.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    BTC/USD daily chart 062221

    The Bitcoin price has major support at $31,000. As per the IOMAP, over 165,000 addresses had previously purchased 200,000 BTC at this level.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    BTC/USD volume chart 062221

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis – Santiment

    BTC/USD santiment chart 062221

    "Falling below $33,000, #Bitcoin's social sentiment on #Twitter is at its lowest level since the start of the major #crypto rally a year ago. Note that historically, the time to #dipbuy & stay strong is when the crowd turns against an asset."

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis – Glassnode

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 062221

    "The priority fees for inclusion in the next block have fallen significantly as network congestion almost completely clears. Bitcoin total fees paid have fallen to just under 30BTC/day (~$1.2M), coincident with levels in late 2019 and early 2020. This currently represents around 4% of miner revenue with the block-subsidy making up the remaining 96%."

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 2 062221

    “After reaching 'Peak HODL' (maximum LTH supply), both cycles demonstrated a macro distribution event, as BTC wealth is transferred from Long term to Short term holders. After the top was put in, we have started to see the opposite effect, where Long-term holders stop spending and begin re-accumulating, despite their coins often falling into an unrealised loss.

    Since the $64k top, Long-term holders own an additional 5.25% of the circulating supply of which 1.5% of this is currently underwater (held at an unrealised loss). Despite prices approaching the cost basis for many long-term holders, they continue to HODL on.”

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 3 062221

    “In the last few months, we see younger coins accounting for over 45% of the total transaction count.”

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 4 062221

    “Binary CDD has fallen so low that only 1 in every 7-days is experiencing lifespan destruction above the long term average. This state has persisted for almost all of June and commenced relatively quickly after the May sell-off indicating old hands are reluctant to sell at these prices. It also highlights how little demand for block-space there is.”

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis – CryptoQuant

    BTC/USD cryptoquant chart 062221

    "Bearish signals from $BTC NVM ratio - $BTC NVM ratio exceeded 1.5."

    BTC/USD cryptoquant chart 2 062221

    “China's ban on Bitcoin mining 1- To investigate the recent hash rate drop, we can look at the Historical Volatility index (Std from 14-day mean ); HV (14)Down pointing backhand index. Historically speaking, we have not seen high volatility in the 14-day hash rate yet (overall integrity is intact).”

    PlanB: Bitcoin Price On Course To Hitting $135,000

    PlanB, the creator of the infamous stock-to-flow model, recently took to Twitter to share some Bitcoin price predictions. The analyst claimed that Bitcoin is still on track to hit $135,000 by the end of 2021. And this is their worst’s cast scenario. 

    Source: Twitter

    BTC/USD planb chart 062221

    However, PlanB believes that the flagship cryptocurrency may continue trading below its April all-time high of $64,895 up till October. The pseudonymous Bitcoin advocate noted that the current drawdown is primarily driven by Elon Musk’s “energy FUD” and China’s ongoing crackdown on the Bitcoin mining industry.

    Bitcoin plunged a whopping 14% when Tesla suspended payments on May 12. Musk’s bearish Bitcoin tweet provoked more selling pressure, which ultimately made Bitcoin correct to a local bottom of $30,000. Despite its recovery, the cryptocurrency succumbed to another bearish narrative of China banning crypto mining.  

    On June 1, Plan B tweeted that Bitcoin’s price action was reminiscent of the 2013 bear market. Their most recent tweet seems to reaffirm the “double top” theory that many bulls pin their hopes on. 

    Back in April 2013, Bitcoin peaked at $259 before correcting roughly 75 percent from the peak within three months. In November 2013, Bitcoin went berserk and exploded to $959 before a multi-year bear market finally arrived.

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    As things stand, the Bitcoin price is crashing towards the $31,000 support wall. A further drop will take BTC to the $30,000 support.

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