Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Creeps Below $40,000 As Impending Death Cross Looms Ahead

Daily Bitcoin BTC Price Analysis

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
3 Min Read
  • The Bitcoin price faces strong resistance at $40,500.
  • The MACD still shows sustained bullish market momentum.
  • The Bitcoin price has crashed from $39,250 to $33,300 between June 4 and June 8. During this crash, BTC managed to flip the 20-day SMA from support to resistance. Following this drop, BTC gained bullish momentum and jumped up to $40,500 till June 14.

    Bitcoin Price Drops Below $40,000

    On June 15 and June 16, the Bitcoin price dropped to $38,300 falling below the $40,000 psychological level. So far today, BTC has recovered to $39,000. The MACD shows sustained bullish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that the buyers and sellers are fighting to take advantage of the market. The 200-day SMA is on course to cross over the 50-day SMA to form the death cross, which is a very bearish sign.

    Image: BTC/USD daily

    BTC/USD daily chart 061721

    The Bitcoin price has major support at $38,000. As per the IOMAP, over 580,000 addresses had previously purchased 380,000 BTC at this level.

    Image: IntoTheBlock

    BTC/USD volume chart 061721

    Bitcoin Price On-Chain Analysis

    BTC/USD cryptoquant chart 061721

    “Fear among $BTC investors is cooling off after the correction

    - Neutral funding rate

    - Increasing open interest

    - Increasing leverage trading.”

    BTC/USD santiment chart 061721

    "#Bitcoin is ranging at just under $39k. And crowd optimism toward #buyingthedip has settled down significantly. With sentiment back to neutral after being mostly positive to start June, this is a good indication of crowd fear opportunists can pounce on."

    BTC/USD santiment chart 2 061721

    "#Bitcoin addresses holding between 100 to 10,000 $BTC have accumulated 90,000 more $BTC in the last 25 days. They now hold a 7-week high of 9.11m $BTC, currently worth a total of $366.89 Billion at this time, and 48.7% of the total #Bitcoin supply."

    BTC/USD glassnode chart 061721

    "Bitcoin Liveliness is a macro indicator for market spending patterns Uptrends indicate more Coin-days are being destroyed than are accumulated (bearish) Downtrends indicates more coins are dormant, HODLed and accumulating lifespan (bullish)."

    BTC/USD delphi chart 061721

    "The net positions of BTC HODLers is a strong indicator of how longer-term investors are thinking about BTC. For the first time since turning negative in Nov. 2020, this metric has flipped positive, indicating HODLers are buyers here."

    Fidelity Official: Bitcoin Price Bottom Is in

    Jurrien Timmer, director of the global macro at Fidelity Investment, has recently revealed that he believes Bitcoin’s price bottom is in for its current bull run. Timmer took to Twitter to share a chart showing the price of BTC/USD compared to the GS Retail favorites basket, with both highlighting similar local bottom formations after enduring a downtrend that followed a head and shoulders pattern. 

    BTC/USD fidelity chart 061721

    He wrote:

    In my view, it looks like the bottom is in.

    Earlier this month, Timmer had said that Bitcoin “lends itself well to technical analysis,” and revealed that he is a “secular bull.” However, in his view, the run-up to $64,000 was “a bit too fast” as it almost prematurely reached its year-end target of $68,000.

    The price of BTC exploded upward late last year, going from $11,000 in October to a new all-time high near $64,000 last month. After its head-and-shoulders pattern, it dropped to $30,000 before recovering and has since bounced back to the $40,000 mark.

    BTC/USD fidelity chart 2 061721

    Popular analyst Willy Woo recently lowered his Bitcoin price prediction to $200,000 by the end of the year as he believes the flagship cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory has started reducing. To Woo, the recent price drop affected BTC’s trajectory, making it unlikely to reach the $300,000 to $400,000 range by the end of the year.

    Bitcoin’s price recently moved up after billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones said he likes BTC as a portfolio diversifier. In the interview, he revealed he would “go all-in on the inflation trades” if the US Federal Reserve remains indifferent to rising consumer prices.

    Bitcoin Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

    As things stand, the Bitcoin price will need to break above the $40,500 resistance barrier to reach the 200-day SMA. In the best case scenario, the buyers will attempt to flip both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs before it charts the death cross.

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