Ripple Price Analysis: XRP Fails To Cross Above the 20-day SMA, As MoneyGram Partnership Ends

Last Updated July 23rd 2021
5 Min Read

Daily Ripple XRP Price Forecast
  • Ripple price has repeatedly touched and failed at the $0.50 level.
  • XRP is sandwiched between the 20-bar, 50-bar, and 200-bar SMAs in the 4-hour chart.

From February 14 to February 28, the Ripple price dropped from $0.635 to $0.417. Following this drop, XRP rose to $0.478 on March 4. Since then, the price has been hovering above the $0.46-$0.48 channel. 

XRP Bulls Face Repeated Rejection At $0.50

Ripple price has been under bullish control for four straight days, however, they haven’t really been able to make a lot of progress. We can see that XRP has tried to make its way to $0.50 psychological level, but has always retracted. The relative strength index tells us that the buyers and sellers are pretty much cancelling each other out.

xrp/usd daily chart 031021

Image: XRP/USD daily

Looking at the 4-hour Ripple price chart, we can see that XRP has been trending horizontally in a narrow range in this timeframe. The price is sandwiched by the 200-bar SMA on the upside and 20-bar SMA on the downside. Below 20-bar SMA is the 50-bar SMA. As such, XRP doesn’t seem to have a lot of wiggle room.

xrp/usd 4-hour chart 031021

Image: XRP/USD 4-hour

Brad Garlinghouse: XRP Is Not A Security

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, recently explained why XRP is not a security. He also mentioned that XRP will continue to trade even if the company disappears. Garlinghouse called the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit “misguided” and noted that XRP had traded in the US for eight years before the allegations surfaced. 

Furthermore, he explained why Ripple’s native token is not a security and highlighted that the asset will trade even if Ripple ceases to exist. 

If you own a security, it gives you ownership of a company. If Ripple goes away, XRP will continue trading.

Garlinghouse said that several other countries such as Singapore, Switzerland and Japan have “clarity and certainty” that XRP is not a security. The US is the only country that has suggested that XRP is a security, he added. The CEO doubled-down on an earlier narrative stating that the lawsuit is “bad” for the entire cryptocurrency industry, not just Ripple. 

While Garlinghouse believes that XRP will continue trading even if Ripple is shut down, Kraken’s CEO Jesse Powell recently spoke about the potential “asymmetrical” risks for exchanges during these uncertain times for the token.

He noted that the SEC has acted in “good faith” when bringing the charges and believes that judges ultimately “tend to side with agencies.” Powell stated that if the SEC wins, then the watchdog would “say that exchanges should have known.” He said:

Huge asymmetrical risk for exchanges. Have to assume SEC's case is in good faith. Judges tend to side with agencies. If XRP found to be a security, SEC would say that exchanges should have known. Safe harbor pending outcome would have been responsible if only purpose is to "test.”

Kraken exchange removed XRP support in January this year. 

Central Bank of France Believes That XRP Could Be Basis For Digital Euro

The Central Bank of France is reportedly considering leveraging Ripple (and XRP) as a platform for issuing the digital euro. CPA Australia, a major accounting organization published a report recently called "Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): A Comparative Review." The document has disclosed that the French Central Bank has been reviewing Ripple and XRP as a possible basis for rolling out the digital euro. 

The bank has also considered Bitcoin and Ether. However, the report calls Bitcoin a too risky means of exchange. As for Ether, it is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any government. As per the report, the world is technologically advancing especially post the COVID-19 pandemic. Discussing the need for digital currencies, CPA Australia said that the pandemic has spurred the adoption of digital currencies and online payments as opposed to cash. 

The report speaks of Ripple as an "alternative platform to Ethereum" and XRP as an asset that runs on its own ledger. It added that "Ripple does not operate on a blockchain network per se" but has its own ledger for performing transactions. 

The authors of the report mentioned that Ripple is trusted by multiple banks as a model for CBDC due to its high centralization. 

Ripple and XRP enjoy the trust of many banks as a model for CBDCs because it is highly centralised and is based on a permissioned network where only certain network nodes can validate transactions, as opposed to decentralised and permissionless Bitcoin and Ether.

France's central bank, Banque de France, has openly discussed Ripple/XRP as a possible platform for Europe's central digital currency.

Ripple and Moneygram Are No Longer Partners

Ripple has recently revealed that its partnership with payments firm Moneygram has come to an end. In a blog post, the company said: 

Together, Ripple and MoneyGram have made the decision to end our current partnership agreement. 

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, took to Twitter to share his thoughts on the matter.

“Today, we’re announcing that Ripple and MGI have together decided to wind down our current partnership agreement, and are both committed to revisiting it in the future. While the lack of a crypto reg framework has needlessly muddied the waters for U.S. businesses & consumers, there’s no denying what Ripple and MGI have achieved together. Billions of dollars have been sent and settled across borders through ODL w/ XRP. “

Ripple also noted that both firms are “committed to revisiting” their relationship in the future.

Ripple and Moneygram entered a partnership back in June 2019. Moneygram had agreed to use Ripple’s XRP as part of its foreign exchange settlement process and Ripple took an equity position in the company. As part of the deal, Moneygram received financial incentives in the form of XRP. As disclosed in public filings, Moneygram did not hold the XRP but sold it upon receipt. 

Moneygram suspended the usage of Ripple's platform last month in light of Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The latter filed suit against Ripple and two of its executives (Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen) in December.

Ripple has filed its formal response to the SEC complaint. Both Garlinghouse and Larsen have moved to have the charges against them dismissed.

Ripple Price Is Expected To Reach These Levels

The Ripple price is likely going to keep hovering along horizontally in these levels. 

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