Ethereum At $100k In 2030 Is Actually Fairly Reasonable

The math supports it

Last Updated November 8th 2021
7 Min Read

At the moment, most analyst projections place Ethereum at anywhere between $10k in the short term and $50k in the long run.

However, if the math serves me right, there is a good chance that it could hit and surpass $100,000 by the end of the decade. While such a valuation may seem a little outrageous, I will demonstrate that it is plausible.

In this article, We will not be making random projections on where the price could go, but rather a breakdown of cold hard numbers. Through these numbers, We will show that $100,000 Ethereum in just nine years is achievable.

Since its launch, Ethereum has grown at an average rate of 193%. From 2017 to 2021, Ethereum has grown at an average rate of 207.2%. However, this growth rate will only slow down over time.

That’s because, like every other asset, the higher the price goes, the more money is needed to impact the price. As such, the growth rate over the next 9-years is likely to be at a decreasing rate.

A Recap Of Ethereum’s Recent Price Action

2017 was one of the best years for Ethereum in recent times. Ethereum rallied by 6,749% that year. However, after the crypto crash of 2018, Ethereum lost 87% of its value. It then started picking momentum in 2019 and closed the year higher by 22.77% before entering a full-blown bull market in 2020.

Between January and December 2020, Ethereum went up by 300%. This year is about to end, and Ethereum looks all set to make even higher gains.  This gives an annual growth rate of about 198%.

If Ethereum maintains a growth rate of 198% between now and 2025, it would be trading at close to $100k by 2025. However, I will take a more conservative growth rate in my projections.

Don't Miss: Ethereum Price Predictions

Taking A Linear-Slowdown Model

Let’s assume that Ethereum is trading at $4600 by the end of the year to create an easy-to-understand breakdown. While its average growth rate has been at around 198% in the last 5-years, it is unlikely to sustain such a growth rate over nine years.

To create a logical, conservative growth rate, let’s assume that it will grow by 90% next year, then keep dropping to around 10% growth by 2030.

Year Increase In Value ETH Price Prediction
2021   $4,600
2022 90% $8,740
2023 80% $15,732
2024 70% $26,744.4
2025 60% $42,791.04
2026 50% $64,186.56
2027 40% $89,861.184
2028 30% $116,819.54
2029 20% $140,183.44
2030 10% $154,201.78

 

From the above, it is clear that Ethereum could easily blow past the $100k mark by 2030. That would be a 33.52x growth from its current price. However, this doesn’t mean that Ethereum’s price will follow this model. This is crypto, and it can always surpass, or fall short of these projections by a huge margin.  

That said, this model gives a pretty realistic idea of where Ethereum could go between now and 2030, as the price gets higher, and the growth rate slows down.

Going by this model, investors have every reason to expect Ethereum to trade at several hundred thousand dollars going into the 2030s.

A Deeper Look Into The Ethereum Price Analysis Model

In the breakdown above, we have only run down the numbers on where Ethereum could by 2030.  Now, let’s run these numbers based on real-world scenarios that could push Ethereum to $100k or more by 2030.

2021 - $4,600 - This price is based on the assumption that Ethereum doesn’t gain any more momentum and ends the year at its current price level. It is also based on the assumption that the broader crypto market starts the year 2022 strongly bullish. 

2022 – 150% - $11,500 – If Ethereum ends 2021 on a bullish note, then 2022 could be a lot more exciting. That’s because Ethereum is in the middle of an upgrade to Ethereum 2.0, and most of the work is expected to be complete by 2022. This is a big deal because, with Ethereum 2.0, Ethereum will be a lot more scalable, thanks to layer 2 scaling solutions such as Optimism. With better scalability, Ethereum will be more attractive to DeFi projects, further entrenching its dominance in this market.  The shift to Ethereum 2.0 has already created a huge rally for Ethereum mainly because it made the project deflationary.

This started with the London fork in August that changed the handling of gas fees on the Ethereum blockchain. With this upgrade, some of the Ether generated in transactions is burned instead of being distributed to miners. In essence, going into 2022, the growing usage of Ethereum will only serve to drive up the price. There are several factors that could drive up the Ether burn rate going into 2022. One of them is the explosion of meme coins, that is if the market will be bullish in 2022. To understand how this affects Ethereum, one needs to look at Shiba Inu. Shiba Inu is Ethereum based, and anyone who needs to buy it has to buy Ethereum first.

This has pushed up the demand and burn rate of Ether over the past month. If the market is bullish in 2022 and investors go crazy about Shib and other ERC-20 meme coins, ETH could easily double in value within the year. Then there is the aspect of institutional adoption of Ethereum. Like Bitcoin, the institutional uptake of Ethereum is on the rise. Once the transition to Eth2.0 is complete, the environmental metrics of Ethereum will improve significantly.

This could serve to draw in institutional investors looking for a mix of gains and climate consciousness. On top of that, a number of Ethereum ETFs have been filed with the SEC. Now that a Bitcoin one has been approved, there is a possibility that an Ethereum one could be approved as well. If it’s approved within 2022, the excitement could trigger an ETH rally of unprecedented proportions.

2023 – 40% - $16,100 – If the market rallies in 2022, then there is a good chance that the growth rate in 2023 could be slower not just for Ethereum, but for the broader market. Growth will be there due to Ethereum’s strengthening fundamentals, and greater adoption of cryptocurrencies, but with profit-taking, it might not be anything epic.

2024 – 60% - $25,760 – After a potentially slow year in 2023, the crypto market could rally in 2024. This has a lot to do with the upcoming Bitcoin halving of 2024. Bitcoin has always been the primary trigger of crypto bull runs and this is not about to stop anytime soon.

For instance, after the halving of 2020, Bitcoin rallied through its $20k highs and in the process, uplifted the entire market. The 2024 halving will shrink the Bitcoin block rewards even further. Considering Ethereum’s deflationary nature, its price could rally even more if Bitcoin triggers a bull run in 2024.

2025 – 80% - $41,216 – The crypto market has always hit the peak of bull markets a year after a Bitcoin halving. For instance, it is in 2017 that the market peaked after Bitcoin’s 2016 halving. Similarly, bullish momentum peaked in 2021 after the 2020 halving. If the trend continues, then Ethereum’s price could peak in 2025.

2026 – 30% - $53,580 – After a rally in 2024/25 and Ethereum’s growing adoption for Web 3.0 applications, late entrants, especially the older generations, could start taking an interest in Ethereum as an investment. This will help sustain the price momentum.

2027 – 20% - $64,296 – Just like all the other years in between rallies triggered by Bitcoin’s block halvings, this could be a slow year for ETH.

2028 – 30% - $83,584.8 – This is the year the next Bitcoin halving takes place. At this point, the excitement around Bitcoin’s halvings may have waned off.  However, it could still trigger another rally, albeit smaller than the rest. 

2029 – 15% - $112,518 – While the 2028 halving may be the last impactful Bitcoin halving, the Bull Run it triggers could see Ethereum and all the other cryptocurrencies rally quite significantly by 2029. Besides, Ethereum’s transactions are already established at this point.

2030 – 10% - $123,769.8 – Ethereum’s is pretty adopted en masse at this point, and as such its growth could be slower.  This means growth of 10- 12% a year can be expected from this point going into the future.

This gives us a value increase that is way higher than $100k without any unrealistic expectations regarding its potential value appreciation.

Ethereum Has Lots Of Growth Potential

The idea is that despite its massive rally recently, Ethereum has a lot of room for growth going into the future. A price above $100k by 2030 is reasonable. Besides, fiat currencies like the USD are devaluing every year. Such a price increase is easily within reach.

Such potential means that anyone who holds Ethereum today is already carrying a pretty valuable asset. By the 2030s, the opportunity could be long gone to make money off Ethereum.

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