Is Ripple on Thin Ice? Legal Expert Weighs in on SEC Case

Last Updated October 23rd 2023
3 Min Read

Key Takeaways -

  • Legal expert Jeremy Hogan estimates only a 2.367% chance of the SEC winning against Ripple, highlighting the complex legal path ahead.
  • After multiple appeals and legal hurdles, Ripple could still take the case to the Supreme Court, adding another layer of complexity.
  • The SEC's recent decision to drop charges against Ripple executives led to an 8% surge in XRP's market cap, but experts caution this could be a strategic move.

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has everyone in the crypto community talking. Legal expert Jeremy Hogan recently offered his perspective, suggesting the SEC has a slim 2.367% chance of winning. This article unpacks the complexities and challenges that lie ahead in this high-stakes case.


The Ripple vs. SEC case is more than a legal dispute; it's akin to a chess game with multiple strategic moves. For anyone invested or interested in the crypto market, understanding the odds and potential outcomes is crucial.

The SEC's Daunting Path

According to Hogan's analysis, the SEC faces a complicated roadmap. If the SEC decides to appeal and wins by 2025, it's not the end of the road. The appellate court would send the case back to the trial judge for more nuanced evaluations. This means the SEC would have to navigate through a series of legal complexities, even after a partial win at the appellate level. Another appeal would be necessary, adding more twists and turns to the legal journey.

The Supreme Court Wildcard

Adding another layer of complexity is the Supreme Court. After navigating these legal hoops, Ripple could still escalate the matter to the highest court in the land. This adds yet another variable to an already intricate equation.

Additional Obstacles for the SEC

The SEC's journey doesn't end with legal complexities. They also have to avoid settling the case to keep it strong. Hogan gives the SEC only a 14% chance of winning the first appeal. Moreover, external factors like political changes or Acts of Congress could disrupt the case entirely. It's worth noting that these challenges don't even account for potential market dynamics like Proof-of-Stake transitions or deflationary patterns that could influence public perception and legal arguments.

Market Reactions and Investor Caution

Market Reactions and Investor Caution

In a surprising twist, the SEC dropped charges against Ripple's key players, leading to an 8% upward rally in XRP's market cap. While this fueled excitement among XRP enthusiasts, experts caution that this could be a strategic move by the SEC to expedite the appeal process. Market reactions can be volatile, and they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.

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